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Will We See Another Mortgage Crisis?

Jacqueline Little • Oct 03, 2020

Having started in real estate after college in 2007, my very first transaction was representing a seller going through financial distress. If you recall, that same year, the United States housing market was extremely unstable, largely due to high-risk subprime loans. It seemed, unbeknownst to us at the time, that my client would be a victim of the inevitable mortgage crisis.

At the time, the seller’s income had not increased but the mortgage definitely did. The option of refinancing was off the table due to the fact that their current property appraisal value had not increased even though their mortgage payments have. Keep in mind that appraisal value is essentially linked to hundreds of homeowners in Hawaii, as well as thousands across the nation, going through the same situation either at the time or months prior. If none of this resonates with you I highly recommend watching "The Big Short,” a 2015 film by Adam McKay. 

During the mortgage crisis, people were significantly financially and emotionally affected by external circumstances that were out of their control. Now here we are, 13 years later, in 2020. We went from 2.7% unemployment rate in January (according to labor.hawaii.gov) to a whopping 23.8% in April (according to https://www.deptofnumbers.com/unemployment/hawaii/). The unemployment numbers alone show where we are as a state economically. And since our primary industry (tourism) is currently shut down, Hawaii’s economic future is quite unpredictable.

When you take into consideration all the statistics and current trends you’d be hard pressed not to be reminiscent of the 2007-2008 mortgage crisis. Interest may be at an all time low right now, but according to the Honolulu Board of Realtors, the number of condo sales and home sales have actually decreased since 2019. 

There are thousand of Hawaii homeowners who are currently dependent on the current forbearance plan and increased unemployment checks. Business and rental assistance are available too. But at some point these options will run dry and once again, we will see hundreds of homeowners looking to refinance at the same time. Most of whom will be doing so without a job, which will lead to mortgage defaults. Prolonged defaults will lead to late fees, penalties and short sales. Those short sales will then lead to lower appraisal prices affecting the next owner, and so on. Dèjá vu?

On a daily basis many friends, family, and clients ask me what I think is going to happen to the Hawaii real estate market. Starting here, I hope I am able to provide some valuable insight about our current economic situation and how it will affect our housing market in Hawaii. I am personally going to wait at least six months before I purchase another investment unit. Understandably, everyone has their own motivations and goals. In the meantime I wish the best, not just Hawaii, but the entire nation. Hoping we can rise again for the ashes, like we always have.

Written by Jacqueline Little 


By Engage Team 15 Mar, 2022
From the Big Island to Oʻahu One of the benefits of living in the island archipelago of Hawaiʻi is that the other Hawaiian islands are a short flight away. It was during a spontaneous visit to Oʻahu from the Big Island of Hawaiʻi – where we lived for 6 years – that my partner and I got the idea to switch islands. Although each of the Hawaiian islands has unique merits, we were ready to experience Oʻahu’s convenience, plentiful hiking trails and beaches, and diverse economic opportunities. After landing a job offer based in downtown Honolulu, our relocation planning began. Since we were still largely unfamiliar with Oʻahu, we tailored our apartment search to a few factors, including: proximity to work; walkability to groceries and other necessities; and amenities like air conditioning, a pool, and a gym. Of course, budget was a factor as well, and we set our price range accordingly. Choosing Kakaʻako While the apartment criteria narrowed our search to three Honolulu neighborhoods – Waikiki, Ala Moana, and Kakaʻako – we focused on Kakaʻako because of its newer buildings and walkability to shops and dining. While living in a downtown Airbnb, we cruised sites like HICentral , Zillow , and Craigslist to find leads, and looked at several apartments before securing a 1-bedroom in the recently completed Keauhou Place tower. In addition to our unit having an incredible view overlooking downtown and the harbor, it came with shared amenities like covered parking, a pool, gym, and barbecue grills. As well, we enjoyed access to its ground-level pedestrian mall, which offered a natural grocery store, spa, and spots for dining and takeout – not to mention a short jaunt to even more options at SALT and Ohana Hale Marketplace . Aside from walkability, the location served as a central jumping off point for weekend adventures around the island. Change of Scenery Two years, a pandemic, and one job transition later, we were ready for another change of scenery. Since I switched from working in-person to working remotely, we no longer needed to live close to downtown, and began exploring the idea of moving to Oʻahu’s east side, where we would be closer to some of our favorite hikes and beaches. While the search process was similar, the inventory in our budget range was different, and it took a bit longer to find a suitable home. As opposed to the ample selection of apartment and condo listings in Honolulu’s urban core, the east side neighborhoods of Kaneohe, Kailua, and Waimanalo offered mostly ADU’s (additional dwelling units) or single family homes converted into multiple rentals units – sometimes lacking the privacy or amenities we needed. It took about 3 months to find our ideal rental home in Kailua, a similar 1-bedroom condo within a comfortable walking distance to town and the beach. It took a lot of patience, because the inventory was more limited; but, luckily we had flexibility to keep searching until we found our match.  Urban v. Suburban: Which to Choose? Ultimately, I am glad we got the experience of living in both Honolulu and Kailua. Particularly, the Kakaʻako neighborhood, with its abundant street art, well-maintained parks, and diverse shops and dining options, is a great place to get a feel for Oʻahu’s urban core. On the other hand, Kailua has an intimate, beachy feel, which could be a better fit if you can work remotely – and avoid the driving commute into “town” (local shorthand for Honolulu). Either way, pre-determining your unique home, budget, timing, and lifestyle criteria can help to narrow your search and point you in the right direction. About the Author Ali Slous is the founder of Perspective Media , an Oʻahu-based creative agency whose mission is to empower entrepreneurs and small businesses to channel creativity in ways that generate both professional success and personal satisfaction. When she is not creating Perspective Media, Ali enjoys access to the incredible nature Hawaiʻi has to offer. Resources HICentral: https://www.hicentral.com/ Zillow: https://www.zillow.com/honolulu-hi/?utm_content=319854744|1301821912900950|kwd-81363927204438:loc-190|81363895177301|&utm_campaign=zbw_br_natgeo_usa_x_nat_cities_e_b_1&semQue=zillow%20honolulu&msclkid=330d4f9cfa6b19b9b07d2db5ba061625 Craigslist: https://honolulu.craigslist.org/search/hhh SALT: https://saltatkakaako.com/ Hale Ohana Marketplace: https://www.ohmhawaii.com/ Perspective Media: https://perspectivemediahawaii.com/
By Jacqueline Little 16 Feb, 2022
A new year is upon us, and I must say it feels familiar, yet unpredictable. What I mean by that is, although we’re still dealing with the pandemic, the real estate market is still very dynamic. Mortgage rates dropped to record lows for much of last year, while home values and sales peaked to record highs. Where does it go from here? To say that there will be a housing market cool down is too drastic. Steady buyer demand and low inventory will continue to drive up prices. My insight for 2022 aligns with what most are predicting for the housing market’s future - everything will be high. Demand, prices, home appreciation rates, and eventually home inventory and interest rates will rise too. While some trends from 2021 will continue into the new year, some things will change. This year will be defined as a steady year of (slow) growth. The market will no doubt be in the favor of the sellers for now, but things will start to swing the other way. Because the real estate market is affected by current events, fluctuations are inevitable. If you’re looking to buy, pay attention to interest rates and always be in tune with your own personal finances. If you’re in a position to sell this year, it wouldn’t be a bad idea. The smaller housing inventory fares to your advantage because low inventory creates competition among buyers, essentially increasing your property’s value. If you’re a seller, know that there are options for selling. Whether it’s your first home sale or your fifth, talking to a real estate agent will help you explore your options so you can market your home to a wide range of potential buyers and get you top dollar for it. If you’re a buyer, the same advice rings true here. Talk to a real estate agent who can help you navigate this active housing market and help you find the right situation for you to act on. As always, Royal Realty is here for you and ready to take on 2022 with you!
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